Interview with Ted Molczan, citizen satellite tracker
- Andrea James
- Uncategorized
- Mar 09, 2011
- France, GEO, Greg Roberts, guestblog, Image, Innovation, OTV, Science, Space, STS, Technology, Ted Molczan, USAF
Video: Chiefland Star Party Skyscape Time Lapse by William Castleman
The skies have stories to tell. Some of the stories make for interesting puzzles, particularly sightings of previously unseen objects in earth orbit. My friend Ted Molczan is part of a small but dedicated group of private citizens who track satellites, with a special focus on unannounced/secret satellite launches. 2011 has already been an interesting year for the group, who post their findings at the SeeSat-L website (satobs.org) and others. Ted presented compelling evidence that he had spotted a possible Prowler satellite that may have been secretly launched in 1990 on space shuttle launch STS 38. Today, Greg Roberts of their group found the USAF’s X-37B OTV 2-1 spaceplane, launched into a secret orbit on Saturday. Ted was kind enough to share his philosophy, techniques, and consumer-grade equipment, all of which is easily available for interested citizens wishing to get involved.
Do you consider yourself a government transparency activist?
Ted: “I see myself as a hobbyist who enjoys solving technical puzzles that help to increase public knowledge of space flight, and improve the transparency of activities taking place in Earth orbit.”
How do you respond to your critics within government intelligence agencies?
Ted:”The most common criticism is that by publishing the orbits of intelligence gathering satellites, we may enable adversaries of the U.S.A. and its allies to
conceal their activities, by scheduling them to
avoid periods when the satellites are overhead. Since our
informal little group uses very simple equipment and methods to
find and track nearly all of the more than 300 objects
currently in secret orbit – launched by France, Germany,
Israel, Japan and the U.S.A. – it seems reasonable to conclude
that given sufficient motivation, even the poorest nation could
accomplish at least as much. Moreover, at least a few nations
have the means to conduct far more sophisticated space
surveillance. Therefore, it appears that the secrecy of orbits
depends entirely on the cooperation of adversaries, in which
case they cannot practically be considered secret, and to
pretend otherwise is a potentially dangerous self-deception.”
In what ways do you consider your work
valuable to other citizens?
Ted: “Our
small contribution to public knowledge, potentially enables
citizens to make more informed decisions regarding the
activities that their governments conduct in space on their
behalf.”
How did you get started
tracking satellites?
Ted: “I was
fascinated by the start of space exploration when I was growing
up in the 1960s. Television coverage was very extensive,
especially of piloted missions, but seeing satellites from my
own backyard made it seem more personal and more tangible.”
What equipment do you currently
use?
Ted: “I track objects and measure
their positions relative known stars with 25 X 100 binoculars,
mounted on a tripod with fluid pan head. I make timings using a
stopwatch with a 200 split time memory, which I manually
synchronize to a high precision time signal.”
What would be on your wish list of
equipment?
Ted: “I would like to
replace the stopwatch with a device of similar size, operation
and precision, but which records absolute time instead of
relative time, to eliminate the need to synchronize with a time
signal. I have never found anything like that for sale.”
What is the climate of collaboration
with other citizen satellite observers?
Ted: “There has long been excellent collaboration
among the small worldwide group of satellite observers. Our
group is highly informal; we have no name and no leader. It is
no one’s responsibility to do anything, yet we track nearly all
of the objects currently in secret orbit. Statistics compiled
in 2008, revealed that twenty observers located in Australia,
Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, South
Africa, Sweden, UK, and USA, produced more than 20,000
observations annually.”
Your most
recent white papers at satobs.org were about a possible Prowler
satellite that may have been secretly launched in 1990 on STS
38. Can you describe the process and information you used to
come to that conclusion?
Ted: “The
unknown object I suspect is Prowler was one of a small number
left over after researchers had identified the current orbit of
each of the more than 150 objects acknowledged to have been
placed in secret geosynchronous orbit. It had been discovered
in 1998 by fellow hobbyists Ed Cannon and Mike McCants, of
Austin, Texas, who reported optical characteristics much more
typical of a payload than a rocket body or debris. Information
from a trusted source, that Prowler was built on the common
HS-376 satellite bus, enabled testing the hypothesis that the
unknown object was Prowler, by comparing its brightness with
known HS-376 satellites, which revealed a striking similarity.
Analysis of the object’s orbit reveals a strong
correlation with the STS 38 shuttle mission, as well as the
constellation of Soviet geosynchronous satellites at the time,
which Prowler reportedly was designed to surreptitiously
inspect at close range. That its present orbit librates
(oscillates about a given longitude, instead of drifting all
the way around the planet) makes it statistically highly
probable that the object is a satellite, and not a rocket body
or debris.
Prowler had reportedly been designed to be
optically stealthy when operational, but that capability would
have been lost upon decommissioning, which would have
complicated its disposal. The Prowler suspect appears to have
been decommissioned by the mid-1990s, and its orbit shows signs
of having been designed to avoid detection by Russia, by
limiting the range of longitude over which it librates to a
portion of the western hemisphere out of sight of space
surveillance stations on Russian territory.
Librating
orbits are frowned upon for satellite disposal, because they
remain close to the altitude of operational satellites,
creating a collision hazard that lasts for many thousands
years, at least. The Prowler suspect’s librating orbit appears
to have been designed to mitigate this problem, by making it
slightly eccentric, such that over the long term its presence
in the most critical zone would be reduced to about one percent
of the time.
I believe that I have presented a strong
circumstantial case that the unknown object is Prowler, but
since its existence remains unproven, there is room for doubt.
In an effort to test the veracity of the Prowler story, I made
a retrospective analysis of the opportunity for STS 38 to have
launched Prowler. I found that the shuttle could easily have
launched the combined mass of both Prowler and the one
satellite STS 38 was known to have launched, and accommodated
both within its payload bay. The orbital and observational
history of STS 38 reveals the time of both payload deployments,
and narrows the time of their manoeuvres to GEO to a roughly
half day period.
Prowler was at risk of detection by
the Soviet Union’s space surveillance and signals intelligence
(SIGINT) systems, from deployment until arrival at its initial
location in GEO. Taking into account likely detection avoidance
measures narrows the time of its manoeuvre to GEO, to three
revolutions. Evidence of deception consistent with providing
cover for Prowler is found in the shuttle’s nonstandard payload
separation manoeuvres after both satellite deployments, and the
apparent timing of Prowler’s deployment to avoid detection by
the Soviet SIGINT facility at Lourdes, Cuba.”
Your group announced today that Greg Roberts has
found the USAF’s X-37B OTV 2-1 spaceplane that was launched
into a secret orbit on Saturday. Can you give some
background on the new find?
Ted: “The
USAF has procured two X-37B space planes, which are small,
experimental, unpiloted, shuttle-like vehicles. The two
spacecraft are called OTV (Orbital Test Vehicle) 1 and 2. OTV 1
was launched first, in April 2010. Our group discovered it
several weeks later, and due to a sort of a fluke, the NYT
broke the story as an exclusive. As you can imagine, that
resulted in huge worldwide news media interest, that in my
opinion far exceeded the importance of either X-37B or our
discovery of it.
OTV 1 landed successfully in
December, and now its sister, OTV 2, is on its maiden voyage –
it was launched on Sunday. Greg Roberts, who was one of the
co-discoverers of OTV 1, found OTV 2 this morning, and we now
know its approximate orbit, which we made public. [ here
-aj]
What has been the observation you
are most proud of to date?
Ted: “I
take the greatest pleasure in the discovery of AFP-731 in
October 1990, by Russell Eberst, of Scotland, and Daniel
Karcher and Pierre Neirinck, of France. It had been launched on
a secret shuttle mission in February 1990, and suddenly
disappeared a week later, leaving behind only debris. It had
been thought to have exploded, but my colleagues found it
apparently intact, in an orbit of higher altitude and
inclination than the one into which the shuttle had placed it.
Years later, the satellite’s true identity and mission leaked
out: it was a stealthy imagery intelligence satellite called
Misty, designed to be more or less invisible at visual and
radar wavelengths. The optical stealth mechanism is believed to
have been a mirror that could be accurately aimed to reflect
the blackness of space toward detection threats. Our hobby was
not well known at the time, so it is unlikely that we were
among the identified detection threats, which explains why
Misty was about as bright as the stars of the Big Dipper when
my colleagues spotted it by chance, on different nights over a
several day period.
If someone wanted
to get involved in citizen satellite tracking, what basic
equipment, tips, and location do you recommend for optimal
results?
Ted: “Equipment ranges from
binoculars and stopwatch, to telescopic, computer driven still
or video CCD cameras. Computer software is available to assist
in data reduction. Most of us observe from urban locations. The
basics of making the precise positional observations required
to maintain accurate orbital elements of satellites are
explained here:
http://www.satobs.org/position/posn_measure.html
Several observers track satellites through the
analysis of the Doppler shift of their radio transmissions,
which has proven to be a very useful technique.
We
share our observations via the SeeSat-L mailing list, which is
devoted to all aspects of visual satellite observation.
Subscription information and the public archive are available
here:
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
Thanks for sharing your work with
everyone, Ted!
Image: Ted’s tripod-mounted binoculars
on the balcony of his Toronto home. Used with
permission.